Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Cuban Missle Crisis Redux?

For those too young to remember, shortly after a young relatively inexperienced John F. Kennedy was sworn in as president, he was faced with a serious crisis. Russians had begun placing tactical missiles in Cuba that would be capable of delivering nuclear warheads the size of the Hiroshima bomb into the US. The existence of these missiles was verified by U-2 reconnaissance planes.

The missiles were there for two reasons. One was a response to the invasion of Cuba by the US CIA shortly after Kennedy became president, in an incident known as the "Bay of Pigs" invasion. This was an attempt to use Cuban ex-patriots to retake the island and depose president Fidel Castro. Exploiting the moment, the Russians had allied with Cuba and Cuba, which had been non-aligned, became a client state. The missiles arguably were there to protect Cuba from further invasion.

More importantly, however, the US had stationed its own nukes in Turkey on Russia's doorstep. Naturally nervous about this, Russia was looking for leverage. Cuba was a natural parking lot for their nuclear junk.

Kennedy took a hard line and adopted a naval blockade of Cuba. As a result of the the US naval blockade, Russia agreed to remove its missiles. What is not as well known, however, was that the US secretly agreed to remove its missiles from Turkey. Premiere Khrushchev demanded this after getting Kennedy to agree to drop the blockade by agreeing to remove the Russian missiles from Cuba.

Why is this relevant now? Today, the largest ship in Russia's navy, cruiser Peter the Great and its supporting squadron, docked in Venezuela to a 21-gun salute. Venezuela now is run by President Hugo Chavez, who is not friendly to the current US regime. Venezuela showed off two Sukhoi fighter jets recently bought from Russia, during joint exercises, after buying $4bn worth of Russian weapons.

How does this parallel the missile crisis? Looking to Europe, Russia sees a direct security threat from Bush neocon plan to install US missiles and radar in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russian president-for-life Putin has said he will deploy missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave that borders Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic.

Putin announced yesterday that he'll abandon this plan if the US changes course and does not go forward with the missile and radar installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Medvedev has said that he thinks President-elect Obama will abandon the plan. The parallels are striking. Obama, the new kid on the block, will not want to look like he's being pushed around. He'll have to show that he's smarter, not just tough, if he wants to calm this shit down. I hope he's got the courage to stare down the hawks who like to stir up unnecessary and unproductive conflict.

Carl says, "DON'T BE DUMB! WWIII IS A BAD IDEA. YOU LIKE TO START SOMETHING? WHY NOT KICK ROBERT MUGABE IN THE ASS BEFORE HIS ENTIRE COUNTRY STARVES?"

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